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A very dry April and an uncertain weather outlook for May - The Galveston County Daily News : Weather Watch

November 27, 2014

A very dry April and an uncertain weather outlook for May

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Posted: Friday, May 2, 2014 4:29 pm

April 2014 went into the record books as the third driest April ever for Galveston with only 0.10 inches of rain recorded. That brought total precipitation since January 1 to 4.97 inches of rain, 8.14 inches less than would be expected for the first four months of the year. League City fared a little better with 1.46 inches in April, but that was still less than half of normal for the month. League City has measured 6.35 inches of rain since Jan. 1, which is 7.58 inches less than would be expected.

Fortunately, some showers will be moving into our area today, providing fairly light but still much needed moisture. Beyond that, the outlook is much more uncertain.

May is an erratic month when it comes to rainfall. Generally about 3.05 inches of rain is likely for the month, but this figure is misleading as May often swings between being very wet or very dry.  For example, 10 Mays since 1872 have seen less than 0.15 inches of rain for the entire month. On the other hand, May can also bring excessive amounts of precipitation.  Five Mays have seen more than 10 inches of rain for the entire month with amounts in excess of 5 inches being fairly common.

So, with drought conditions gradually creeping back into Southeast Texas, what will this May bring?

The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the month shows an equal chance of the month being either drier or wetter than normal. In other words, at this point in time it is a toss-up as far as rainfall goes. The latest 16-day GFS model outlook is mixed with below normal precipitation projected through the 10th, but with a wetter outlook for the period of May 11-18.

In other words, the outlook is somewhat uncertain. What is certain is that we really need to see some more rain if we are to avoid serious drought conditions as we move into summer.

Below are a couple of links related to this blog:

Climate Prediction Center Outlook for May

Texas Drought Monitor