Most people have heard that the experts are predicting an average to below-average season in terms of named tropical systems. This consensus was reflected the other day by NOAA’s official forecast calling for a comparatively slow season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, as a developing El Niño pattern suppresses activity in the Atlantic while enhancing it in the eastern Pacific.
While it is nice to think we may get another break this year from serious tropical systems, the headlines accompanying the news release were somewhat misleading. One actually stated that the experts were calling for a “mild” season. In reality, the only “mild” season is one with no U.S. landfalls at all, and that is very rare.